The US market resists, will it stop Bitcoin in its flight? The Macro-Weekly Update

Need a break?- The past week was an important week with several crucial macroeconomic appointments. The second quarter results fell, and they are mixed. Whether Apple and Amazon have satisfactory and higher than expected income, this is not the case for Metaplatforms (Facebook), Microsoft, Alphabet (Google). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the United States was not backing down and expressed confidence in the country’s economic growth. Rates were raised as expected and the market seems to have appreciated that as it rebounded. the Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies took the opportunity to rebound as well. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ arrive at important resistances, is this the end of the rebound? Let’s look at the clues left on the charts.

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Bitcoin may return to $28,500

Bitcoin bounces for a few weeks and this could continue:

Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (1D)

BTC is in bullish momentume on a daily basis since the change in trend validated on 1July 9th. Bitcoin came out of its interval and is evolving above it currently. In the coming days, it could again find itself at the level of the old resistance that has become support at $22,300. If this was the case, the buyers had to validate the support by zone defender.

Please note, Bitcoin has changed momentum on a daily basis, but the price remains brittlebecause it evolves below the downtrend initiated during the top in November 2021. Also, the stochastic is not far from showing a bearish divergence. This would then show that the movement is running out of steam and that the sellers could regain control of the course. The RSI is encouraged as long as it extends above the uptrend in black.

We will have to be attentive to the movements of US stocks, because they may, once again, show the direction of cryptocurrencies. BTC could join the zone at $28,500but buyers are going to have to defend the support at $22,300.

Risk off: Gold rebounds and the dollar continues to fall

Gold continues to rebound

As identified in previous editionsgold was able to find buyers at the level of $1,690 :

Gold continues to rebound.
Price of gold against the dollar (1W)

The gold is in a range between $1,690 and $1,970. Sooner or later, the price of gold could again touch the uptrend line initiated in 2018. This could allow gold to resume a rising phase. However, if buyers are feverish and the trend line gives way, the identified range will be seen as Distribution. As long as the price is moving above the support and the bullish trendline, we can think that this is a accumulation area. We can make this assumption, because the price is in a bullish primary momentum.

The momentum is always bearish for the moment, we must remain vigilant in the short term.

The dollar continues to fall

A few weeks since the dollar decrease and risky assets taking advantage. For risky assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, the dollar needs to weaken. Here is the chart of the dollar index:

The dollar has been falling for a few weeks.
Dollar price index (3D)

Dollar decline is good for risky assets, but momentum remains bullish for the moment. In addition, the price is still moving above the Support. The dollar would have to change momentum to think that the dollar bullrun is over.

The momentum is building diverge in the unit of time presented on the graph. The divergence will be confirmed if the RSI closes below 58. The RSI is still moving above the uptrend line and he could bounce in the coming days. If the divergence is true, and the trendline is broken, it could be a good sign for risky assets.

The US market is coming at resistance. End of the upward movement?

As explained in the introduction, the last week was marked by a continued rise despite mixed figures from Gafam. From a technical analysis point of view, indices such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ arrive at resistors important.

S&P 500 close to resistance at $4,165

The US index is likely to get stuck in the coming days, as a resistance important stands in its way:

The S&P 500 is coming in at the resistance level at $4,165.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

The S&P 500 has changed momentum and is trying to regain value in the face of a weakening dollar. After crossing the resistance at $3,900price rose towards the next resistance at $4,165. The price could pause after a rise of almost 15%.

Momentum is very encouraged in three-day time units, because the RSI breaks the bearish trendline dating from the end of 2021. The momentum is no longer fragile and even marks a bullish divergence. A divergence means a shortness of breath and the price could then range between the two limits. A range between $3,900 and $4,165 is likely. Of course, a break in the resistance is conceivable with such an encouraged momentum, but it is not the most probable hypothesis.

Coinbase is again rejected at the level of the bearish trendline

Coinbase Tent develop a market low :

Coinbase is trying to change momentum.
Coinbase price against the dollar (1D)

Coinbase price is always bearish and below the downtrend. This one once again rejected the course to $78. If Coinbase manages to close above $84, the downtrend would be broken and the price would change momentum. This would be a good sign for cryptocurrencies because it would show interest in them. The momentum is oriented towards an increase in assets.

NASDAQ touches resistance at $13,000

The NASDAQ is in the same situation as the S&P 500. After experiencing a rebound of more than 18%it reaches the level of a resistance :

The NASDAQ is coming in at the resistance level at $13,000.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (1D)

The NASDAQ has changed momentum on a daily basis, but it remains stuck, for nowbelow the downtrend. It comes close to the dual resistance daily with resistance to $13,000 and the downtrend. It seems likely that the index will pause after a rebound of a few weeks. The momentum remains bullish and validates the increase for the moment.

If the dollar continues to fall, risky assets like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ could take advantage of this to continue rising. These assets are coming in at important resistances, they are likely to pause.

After experiencing several weeks of rising risky assets, it would not be impossible to experience a consolidation phase. The American indices arrive on hard zones and that could reject the course in the short term. The dollar is losing momentum, but the trend is bullish at the moment and this remains problematic for risky assets. If the dollar initiates a change in trend, we can then consider a possible lower market for risky assets. the Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will most likely follow the movements of US equities, we will have to be attentive and vigilant to the slightest weakness in US equities.

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