If you haven’t had a chance to take advantage of the recent bullish move in cryptos, it’s best not to top up your favorite assets right now. Indeed, we must not forget that we have been in a bear market since November 2021. This dynamic having accelerated in recent months, it is quite normal to witness a bullish rebound. However, this impulse could make you believe one thing: to have missed the low point. To be honest, we don’t know, but that shouldn’t push you to buy without having first identified the situation of the assets vis-à-vis their key levels.
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The total market capitalization in full rebound on the high end?
Since last week, the market has had the opportunity to bounce off the upper limit of the range that we had identified for several weeks. As I told you, the objective was to avoid reinstatement, which is happening at the moment. However, remember that the daily swing pattern is bearish. Thus, theoretically, we are still in an upward correction before breaking the low point downwards.
For the market to be able to prolong this upward momentum, the objective is as follows: to break out of the current red zone and go back to the trough of the summer of 2021. It is a confluence of levels which is not negligible. Once this is done, the market will probably be able to return to 1.2 trillion dollars. This level was a local support that had allowed the market, from mid-May to early June, to pause in its downward momentum. In case of a downside reversal, the level that is currently to watch is the low at $923 billion. In case of loss, it will mean a return of the daily trend which is bullish.
A bullish momentum that is preserved on altcoins?
Compared to last week, I have refined my bearish swing pattern which was misidentified and far too broad. The bullish trend is still preserved, the altcoins persist (for the moment) their pullback. So, last week’s bullish bias was the right one for altcoins. However, we are coming to a confluence of notable technical levels. In addition to an old daily support which had never been retested except for the last few days, we have a daily supply zone which is still valid. The H4 supply zone is no longer valid but I have marked it for you anyway so that you can understand where it was.
The current challenge is as follows: break the daily supply zone in order to have a new bullish objective on altcoins (supply zone which is in confluence with resistance). If the price gets rejected on the current level, it will trigger the strength of the sellers who have not said their last word. For the internal structure to turn bearish again, I invite you to watch the low at $363 billion. In the event of a close or wick below this low, we will have to think about bearish price targets.
Bitcoin dominance is still in a pattern described?
For now, the dynamic remains the same as the past two weeks. Bitcoin continues to lose strength against the rest of the market. We can see this currently with the formation of a new low. This shows that the daily trend is bearish. Currently on an important technical level, if the dominance of bitcoin does not manage to operate a trend reversal with a recovery of (for the moment) 42.63%, we can keep a bearish bias.
The price seems to be following the chart annotation I made last week. I am not trying to describe the future movement identically. However, it helps to understand the structure that might be occurring. Yes, sooner or later Bitcoin will regain control in this bear market. Thus, the levels identified are always the same, I invite you to keep your eyes on the 41.32%. This level is an important low point.
Ethereum does not give up and continues to rise against Bitcoin
I had the opportunity to update this graph by replacing the old red zone (still valid) with a daily supply zone. This allows for a larger intervention area. For the moment, Ethereum manages to extend its upward trend by continuing to register higher peaks than the previous ones. Thus, as long as we do not break the previous low which is located (for the moment) at 0.0651 bitcoin, the internal structure is bullish.
I would like to alert you to increased vigilance to have on current levels. The top of the bearish swing range should theoretically be preserved. So, sooner or later, Ethereum should fall again against Bitcoin. This return would be ideal in the orange supply zone. However, nothing is certain since it is entirely possible to have a bullish breakout of the bearish swing pattern. It is better to wait for certain technical configurations and rely on what we have at the moment. The objective is not to predict the future, but to adapt as quickly as possible to changes in prices.
An ALTPERP index that should be watched carefully.
Since the analysis of the index, dated July 10, the altcoins have managed to gain strength by extricating themselves from the resistance that had to be watched. By operating a bullish breakout of the resistance, a reversal of the internal structure took place. This helped establish bullish targets for this index. While still in an upward trend, the index is currently in a weekly supply zone in which a daily supply zone is nested. Thus, caution should be exercised at this time.
Indeed, sellers could take advantage of a return of altcoins to key technical levels to resurface. This would prevent the buyers from breaking the swing pattern which is bearish. So, what would be the sign of a reversal of the index? Considering the current price structure, a bearish breakout of the demand zone with a loss of $1708 will confirm a reversal of the current trend.
Here we are at the end of this weekend crypto point. If there’s one thing I want to draw your attention to, it’s the confluences of technical levels that the market as a whole faces. Whether it’s altcoins or Ethereum against Bitcoin, the market is in a daily uptrend. However, it comes on the top of a bearish swing pattern. So, be careful and don’t hesitate to take partial profits. Remember that we are in a bearish market with a definite macro backdrop. If the market continues to push higher, there will always be new opportunities.
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