Bitcoin (BTC): What does the price wave count tell us about its next move?

The price of Bitcoin has been trending upward since June 18. This may be the start of a long-term wave five.

There are two main possibilities for the Bitcoin (BTC) long-term wave count.

The bullish count suggests that Bitcoin has just started the 5th and final wave of a 5-wave upward move (in white) started in March 2020.

The main factor supporting the hypothesis of this count is that the bottom of wave 4 was found right at the level of the channel dependent on the highs of waves 1-3 at the lows of waves 2-4. Additionally, correction waves 2 and 3 exhibited very similar lengths.

A decline below the high of wave one, at $13,880 (red line), would negate this particular count knowing that wave 4 would then fall into wave 1 territory.

BTC/USD Chart – TradingView

Bitcoin Short Term Count

If the proposed count is correct, the short-term count indicated that since its all-time high (ATH), Bitcoin has completed a corrective pattern in ABC (in red), within which the A:C waves presented an exact ratio of 1:1.61. This is the second most common ratio between these waves, after the 1:1 ratio. The subwave count is shown in black.

If this count is correct, it would mean that a new five-wave upward move has begun. A drop below the low of sub-wave 2 (red line) at $20,700 would negate this wave count.

court term
BTC/USD Chart – TradingView

Alternative scenario

The crypto trader @Thetradinghubb one tweeted a chart of Bitcoin that shows a complex corrective structure. In this one, the price will go down to another low towards $15,000 before the continuation of the bullish movement. However, the trader suggested that the proportions are off, leading him to believe that this count is incorrect.

Source: Twitter

Thus, the only other potential count would indicate that the entire five-wave bull run is over, and price has now begun a long-term ABC correction (white).

The subwave count is shown in black, suggesting that BTC is in its fourth subwave and will decline once more in order to complete the fifth subwave.

Although the decline is proportional, the problem with this count is the shallowness of waves four and five (in white). Due to these divergences, the bullish count remains more plausible.

BTC/USD Chart – TradingView


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