Bitcoin (BTC) Stock-to-Flow Model: Another failure for this model?!

You are holders or you follow closely the Bitcoin (BTC) price ? You have already heard of the Stock-to-flow model. For those who have never seen what it looks like, here is a screenshot below with some explanation of what it really is.

To simply explain what sinking stock is, it was created by the pseudonymous analyst PlanB, and it is an estimate of the price of Bitcoin over years. Until now the price has been rather correlated to this curve but lately, its estimate has been completely skewed. Indeed, as the curve heralded the price of Bitcoin (BTC) at $98,000 in November of last year.

Here we are now 6 months later, and the price of Bitcoin still hasn’t crossed that $98,000 mark but instead has dropped to $20,000. But then what does the crypto community think?

Stock To Flow: a model still to be taken into account?

This Tuesday, June 21, 2022, a number of Bitcoin holders spoke on the subject as for example the founder of the Ethereum blockchain which is expressed:

“I know it’s rude to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that numbers are going to go up are harmful and all the ridicule they get.”

Stock-flow really doesn’t look good now. I know it’s rude to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that numbers will go up are harmful and deserve all the teasing they get. https://t.co/glMKQDfSbU https://t.co/hOzHjVb1oq

behind this phrase by Vitalik ButerinPlanB’s reaction was immediate: “were looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or bad investment decisions”

After a crash, some people look for scapegoats for their failed projects or bad investment decisions. Not only beginners, but also “leaders” fall victim to blaming others and playing the victim. Remember those who blame others and those who stay strong after an accident. https://t.co/4nJdHq84pm

We will follow this case closely, however it is important to stress that it is never good to blindly trust a predictive model.