Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Analysis – Who Are the Current Bitcoin Buyers and Sellers?

The market is currently saturated with mixed signals. Let the movement settle and observe the buying and selling dynamics of various geographic market areas, as well as various cohorts of holders, in order to answer the following question: “Who are the current buyers and sellers?” »

Bitcoin sends mixed signals

Bitcoin (BTC) price benefit from its short-term bullish momentum. Testing the upper bound of the range ($19k – $22k) as support, the price gives hope for a recovery although the underlying trend remains bearish.

Given theon-chain activity under regimeof the recent spending by long-term investorsof the increase in speculative risk and of short-term momentum reversal, the market today is saturated with contradictory signals.

Figure 1: Daily price of BTC

So, in order to let the current movement settle, this week’s analysis focused on the buying and selling dynamics of the various geographic market areasthen on the triptych Individuals – Traders – Whales, in order to answer the following question:

Who are the current buyers and sellers? »

👉 Other analyses, including one also covering the state of the Ether (ETH) market, are accessible via our Discord Channel, where you can find the analyzes of Prof. Chain, accompanied by other experts like Vincent Ganne and other fundamental analysts!

cryptoast logo

Discover our Private Group

Do you like the analyzes of Prof. Chain ? We have good news for you! He now speaks several times a week on our private group, where our experts analyze the cryptocurrency market and give you the keys to mastering it.

toaster icon

Geographical market areas

Introduced by Glassnode in March 2022, a metric series that tracks the cumulative price movement during trading hours in the US, Europe and Asia provides insight into which geographies are leading or lagging in terms of retained market pressure.

They make it possible to observe the reactions of the various actors structural changes in the market and the price action of BTC.

Triptych composed of United States (in orange)of the’European Union (in blue) and of Asia (in green)these metrics with heterogeneous fluctuations currently indicate that the overall behavior is to buy, although the Asian market shows a slight bearish bias.

BTC GeoZone 010822

Figure 2: Geographical market areas

Starting by observing the buying/selling behavior of the US markets, it appears thatthey strongly contributed to the rise in early 2021 before slowing along with the price of BTC.

They give way from May to July 2021 by making record sales, then quickly re-accumulate during the recovery in September, before limiting their purchases (blue arrow) from November 2021 until July 2022.

note that North American markets dominating the sell-off following the fall in price caused by the collapse of the Terra/LUNA ecosystemfrom May to June, before adopting a mixed behavior, between hot and cold, during the decline bringing the price of BTC to current levels.

currently, the United States leads the dance by applying moderate buying pressure in the market.

BTC US Zone 010822

Figure 3: Change in the position of the US markets

Globally, the European Union seems to follow the behavior of their counterparts across the Atlantichowever, adopting a less intense approach.

Following the accumulation of the US in early 2021, Europe increases its exposure to the highs of March and April but, nevertheless, sells in a moderate way during the period from May to July 2021.

Inducing little buying pressure on the rally carrying BTC towards the ATH of $69k, European markets adopt a moderate behavior, sometimes bullish, sometimes bearish, with relatively low proportions.

Selling gradually in May 2022, Europe eases its downside pressure during the month of June (yellow arrow), before cautiously following the long bias of the United States since last week.

BTC EU Zone 010822

Figure 4: Changing position of European markets

Asian markets revealed their own dynamicssometimes running counter to end markets.

In effect, Asia only participates late in the rise at the start of 2021 and induce limited selling pressure during the decline from May to July 2021.

Leading the buying around November’s ATH, Asia turns around and sells at record highs in late 2021, before repeating this behavior in May 2022, capitulating further in July.

Current positions in Asian markets are still short, although the extent of their downside pressure is reduced.

With a negative overall performance, theasia seems to be the geographical area that has suffered the most over the past two years.

Zone Asia BTC 010822

Figure 5: Changing position of Asian markets

The exchange that has the wind in its sails⭐

5% off your fees with this button

toaster icon

👉 Find the Professor Channel on Twitter

Small hands accumulate, big hands distribute

Let us now qualify this study by analyzing three cohorts of participants based on their BTC holdings.

By leveraging Glassnode’s heuristics, we can gain insight into how many entities have between 0.001 BTC and 1 BTC on the chain.

This cohort, named “Individuals” or sometimes “Shrimp” represents the entities with small amounts of BTC and not having a professional activity sale / purchase / custody of bitcoins.

Retail BTC 010822

Figure 6: Offer held by Individuals

Looking at the graph above, it is clear that the cohort of small portfolios exhibits a strong accumulative behavior throughout the last few years. Note that current price levels are particularly attractive to these entities.

The second cohort, presented below, is it “Tradespeople”. Composed ofentities holding between 1 and 1000 BTCthis group brings together some large individual fortunes but especially businesses, having custody of large sums of bitcoins, for themselves or for their customers.

BTC Merchants 010822

Picture 7 : Offer held by Merchants

Despite behavior that is more sensitive to market movements, holdings of this cohort are on a long-term uptrend, which has also accelerated since May.

Finally, the cohort holding more than 1000 BTCbringing together the entities known under the name “Whales” or “whales” has a behavior opposite to the two previous ones.

After a profit price at the highs of March and April 2021, the supply held by this cohort increased slightly before showing distributor behavior from November 2021.

Whales BTC 010822

Picture 8 : Offer held by Les Baleines

This momentum then intensified until it reached a distribution peak in June and July 2022. Thus, it seems that this cohort has largely participated in the sales pressure and the process of redistributing supply over the past two years.

👉 Find out how to buy Bitcoin easily

Diverse and comprehensive services

Buy and make your cryptos work

toaster icon

Summary of this onchain analysis

In short, the data of this week indicates that significant differences in behavior between the different geographic market areas.

American markets, aggressive bettors, are often the first to buy a rise and to slow down when the movement fades. This will not prevent them from realizing significant losses as during the capitulation from May to July 2021.

The European Union holds the role of moderate follower, following the trends of the US with a particularly controlled magnitude.

Conversely, Asian markets often behave at odds with revealed marketswith a negative overall performance.

Moreover, the study of cohorts of holders according to their holdings allows us to determine that individuals and merchants engage in major hoarding behaviorwhile the whales tending to distribute, participant donated to capital distribution.

Sources – Figures 2 to 8: Glassnode

Access the complete analysis of Prof. Channel via our private group: The toaster

cryptoast logo

Discover our Private Group

Do you like the analyzes of Prof. Chain ? We have good news for you! He now speaks several times a week on our private group, where our experts analyze the cryptocurrency market and give you the keys to mastering it.

toaster icon

Newsletter 🍞

Get a crypto news recap every Sunday 👌 And that’s it.


The content on our website is for informational purposes only. The information on this page does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. You should always do your own research and we suggest you seek outside financial advice.

Leave a Comment