On this Wednesday, June 22, 2022, bitcoin is recovering and manages to preserve the $20,000 zone. Better than that, we find a semblance of bullishness, while the currency exceeds $21,000. However, the various fears as well as the pessimist still reign over all the markets, in particular due to a macro-economy that has not been seen for decades, but above all, due to the markets which are retracing a large part of the rise of the last few years. Let’s not forget the series of bad news concerning the big players in the ecosystem such as Celsius or 3AC. The latter, in my opinion, will weigh heavily on the crypto market and point to a glaring lack of regulation in the event of wider adoption. So what can be learned from this market, where the bottom ? Without further ado, we’re off to this week’s bitcoin 360° point. I will try to be as complete as possible in sharing my feelings about the market. Good lesson!
An area to defend
Bitcoin is playing big at the end of the month. The support of the moving average, 200 days, was reached at the end of last week. This has already been touched many times and has always served as a support.
This area is therefore key and must therefore be defended by buyers to resume a bullish cycle.
In addition to the moving average, it is also a support, since it corresponds to the last high point of 2017, namely the $20,000.
So many expectations this week. In the event of a breakout of this zone, then the given signal would be strong. The downtrend is not over and the retracement may be much longer and deeper than expected.
2 scenarios are therefore available to us:
- Scenario A: it represents a scenario of simple manipulation of interval from below, to recover liquidity. We would like to see a reintegration of this zone as soon as possible in order to be able to target the middle of this price range, then the top which would almost correspond to the ATH (All Time High). Slightly optimistic, but let’s not rule out any hypotheses.
- Scenario B: This one, slightly more realistic in my opinion, shows an area which will be defended, but which will end up giving way, in particular due to the fact of the SP500 and the whole situation. UN retest of this level can be observed on the MM (Moving Average) as well as the support that has become resistance. The objectives will then be much lower, and why not reach $10,000-14,000.
An SP500 in a downtrend
When referring to the macro, as well as to the SP500, then I see a bad bottom arise at this level. Maybe just a small rally, but that wouldn’t challenge the downtrend.
The latter shows a certain weakness and that buyers are not yet there.
On average, a bearish market includes a decline of 35.1%, according to data highlighted by UBS. That of 2007 reached 56.8%. As for the dotcom bubble collapse, it peaked at 49.1%. A 35% drop in the SP 500 would take it to $3,130.
A more attractive area, still in my opinion, would be the $3000-3300 area. Only the market will tell us.
Finally, I receive multiple questions asking me on which site I analyze my values. Personally, and for many years, I have been using TradingView, an intuitive interface with a lot of tools and a wide choice of assets. It is clearly the most developed and used interface on the market.
This is the end of this analysis, do not hesitate to give me feedback on my Twitter account @0xakina. Don’t be too greedy, take profits regularly, have a good money management for your trades and rely on your initial plan. Only invest what you can afford to lose as long as it doesn’t affect your morale too much. Have a good week everyone, and I’ll see you next week for a new analysis!
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Passionate about technical analysis and technology, I have been diligently following cryptocurrencies since 2017. Beyond trading and investing, I try to democratize, in my own way, the ecosystem that will undoubtedly change our habits of tomorrow!