Not without difficulty, Bitcoin and Ethereum managed to extend their rebound technique to levels that had not been revisited for quite some time. Buoyed by the hope of a slowdown in the Fed’s monetary tightening, a lull in the dollar and bond rates, many investors and would see positive signs.
The critical question is whether we are to witness the beginnings of a trend reversal, or unfortunately a pause in the Bitcoin and Ethereum bear markets. In the current state, the latest technical analyzes invite us to be humble. And as the top two cryptocurrencies return near their next resistances, fears of an abortion of their technical rebounds could resurface. Just to spoil the good summer pass.
Bitcoin – A technical rebound is nonetheless timid!
Since its lows of the year recorded in mid-June, Bitcoin has just recovered more than 30%. But despite the validation of its triple bottom in daily units, the technical rebound remains timid if we compare it to that of Ethereum. Even if the latter was well helped by the announcement of his next Merge. Fortunately, Satoshi Nakomoto’s digital currency would still have some underfoot with regard to the evolution of technical indicators in weekly units.
Indeed, the MACD and the RSI are gradually sticking their heads out of the water, although they are well below their respective waterline. A continued recovery would likely contribute to a return of BTC prices towards the resistance at $26,000.
Assuming the technical rebound continues beyond this target which is extended midway, this would lead us to a rapprochement of Bitcoin around $30,000. In favor of an upward acceleration before mid-August, it may well be that the descending line since its last ATH in November 2021 will be crossed. However, this favorable technical signal, if it were to occur, would not lead to the end of the bear market, far from it.
Ethereum – Already in the hard under $1700?
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has made good progress on its technical rebound. Now he is attacking $1700, a level that changed polarity in early June from support to resistance. Especially since it had played a major role in their last ETH bullrun. By confirming its return to the $1250 triple bottom support in daily units, Ethereum has earned the right to attack this key resistance.
Moreover, it is no coincidence that prices have peaked since last Thursday. To the point that buyers would hesitate due to a potential rejoinder from sellers. Moreover, the candle at the beginning of the week would confirm this momentum in the very short term. Although at the same time, the technical indicators regained their range for a few weeks.
Assuming that the MACD and the RSI rise towards the zero line and the neutral zone at 50 respectively, this would greatly help the Ethereum price break through $1700. With the prospect of rallying the resistance of $2300 which corresponds to the bottom of the last interval or horizontal channel (orange rectangle).
Even better, they could positively threaten the descending line since its last ATH in November 2021. But as with Bitcoin, this favorable technical signal, if it were to occur, would not constitute the final end of the bear market.
BTC and ETH – Difficult to reverse a trend reversal until further notice!
The technical rebounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum remain impressive with their upside percentages. Except that this comes after their last bearish wave since their respective resistances of $46,000 and $3,400. And not only are they struggling to make up half of their losses. But for each of them, their Weinstein Stage 4 remains far from dead.
Proof, their 30-week moving averages (MM30 weekly) continue their slide, despite the upturn of the last few weeks. Especially since they could well abort the possible extension of their technical rebounds as resistances, as was the case at the beginning of last April. And the very idea of crossing their descending line would run the risk of being interpreted as a bull trapgiven a lack of easing of the current uncertainties in the financial markets.
Thereby, we are at this point on a bear market break for BTC and ETH both graphically and fundamentally. And we fear that the hope of seeing the FED curb its monetary tightening is proving to be a bad lead. As long as Jerome Powell acknowledged hammering that the fight against inflation remained his priority. Which meant between the lines that the cycle of rate hikes and shrinking the Fed’s asset balance sheet wasn’t going to stop anytime soon.
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