Despite a contraction in GDP in the second quarter, which dragged the United States down (at least technically for economists), the main risky assets continued their technical rebound. Based on this macroeconomic observation, many investors are surprised by this divergent phenomenon.
In reality, theFinancial markets tend to anticipate risks. This largely explains their inefficiency compared to the real economy. In this sense, the hypothesis of seeing the FED slow down its tightening would begin to register in the courses. This could favor the extension of the technical rebound of risky asset classes, and more particularly Bitcoin.
Moreover, the latest technical analyzes concerning the mother of cryptocurrencies show a revival of form near the next resistances. In the short term alone, buyers represent hope. So the question arises: do we accept to aspire better than a technical rebound?
Bitcoin – A not-so-beneficial bullish week
As the threat below the $20,000 support recedes, the sellers prefer to temporarily retreat. Just to assess the situation with hindsight. Cause and effect, Bitcoin prices recover, then gradually approach the resistance of $ 26,000.
Especially since this week of increases in the current state would not be so trivial. In effect, Good BTC price momentum since mid-June is allowing technical indicators to pull themselves out of their doldrums in weekly units. On the one hand, the MACD which remains well below the zero line, crosses the signal upwards. And on the other hand, the RSI timidly rises towards the neutral zone at 50.
And given the upside margin towards their respective waterlines, the current technical bounce could drag on for a few more weeks. Thereby, assuming that $26,000 is crossed, Bitcoin will be watching the resistance of $30,000one of the crucial levels of the last bullrun.
Bitcoin – Confirmation of the return to the $22,000 support
Just like on the $1400 for Ethereum, Bitcoin just confirmed a return on the triple bottom neckline around $22,000. Even better, it seems to be determined to push past the end goal of the bullish chart pattern. The $26,000 which had changed polarity on June 13, going from support to resistance, is now in sight.
The fact that the technical indicators are well above their respective floating lines in daily units, would suggest that we are approaching this level. And, Thanks to reassuring news on the reduced pace of the money market, we can imagine that the current technical rebound could still gain momentum.
Not only in view of the Fibonacci retracement of the last bearish wave, BTC prices weren’t even combined a third of their losses. But given their strong beta since its existence, they could accommodate an overbought RSI, as it has in the recent or distant past.
Under these conditions, the scenario of a return to the resistance of $30,000 mentioned last week would be taken into consideration by many investors. To the point of seeing Bitcoin returns to levels likely to glimpse a favorable trend return.
BTC – Do Not Underestimate Bear Market Pillars!
When we compare the technical rebound of Bitcoin to that of Ethereum, it is clear that Satoshi Nakomoto’s digital currency has fallen behind. Which is not illogical given the decline in BTC dominance over the past few weeks. Moreover, the objective of $30,000 remained modest compared to the Fibonacci retracement. In any case, the bear market since the ATH in November 2021 finally marks a short-term pause.
From there to dream better than a technical rebound, let’s not underestimate Weinstein’s phase 4 and the shoulder-head-shoulder (ETE) which are far from being aborted in the medium-long term. Exactly car, the technical rebound from the $20,000 support has not halted the declining trajectory of the 30 week and 200 day moving averages (MM30 weekly and MM200 daily). So that a crossing of the descending line in this configuration could be a false signal to buy.
It would probably be from this opportune moment that the sellers would intervene. While at the same time, the FED would follow its monetary tightening as it had planned. In which case, Bitcoin prices would enter the last phase of its bear market, which is called the capitulation. With the possibility of seeing new lows for the year (how about the $12,000 support), and more elements to a dry consolidation of the cryptocurrency industry.
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